Autumn budget: What it means for business exits

The Chancellor’s Budget was met with the usual chorus of groans from SME owners. Headlines across the BBC, FT, and Management Today painted the same picture: “Not enough for growth,” “Rising compliance burdens,” “Higher costs for employers.” Professional advisory firms echoed the sentiment.

 

But for business owners planning a sale in 2026, the noise is a distraction – and a dangerous one.

 

Because here’s the uncomfortable truth: the Budget doesn’t determine the success of your exit. Your readiness does.

 

And right now, heading into 2026, too many owners fall into one of two unhelpful camps: 

• The Whingers – those who loudly blame HMRC, inflation, wages, interest rates, politics, and anything else to avoid facing their own lack of preparation.
• The Waiters – those sitting on their hands hoping for a “better market,” a “gentler tax regime,” or a “more generous Chancellor.” 

Both groups are united by one thing: neither will achieve the exit they want.

 

The third group – the only one worth talking about – is the Winners. These are the business owners who look at the same Budget, the same economic conditions, and the same deal market… and act anyway. They plan earlier, prepare harder, and run better businesses. And, unsurprisingly, they achieve better exits.

 

As I argue in The Exit Roadmap, success is never about timing the market. It’s about controlling the controllables, pre-empting the risks, and making your business so attractive that buyers compete for it – whatever the Chancellor announces.

 

So, let’s cut through the noise. Here’s what the Autumn Budget really means for business owners looking to exit in 2026 – and what you must do now to ensure you’re one of the Winners.

 

1. Deal markets in 2026 will reward the prepared and punish the passive

PwC, EY, and BDO all reported the same trend in their late-2025 outlooks: SME M&A volumes are down, deal timelines are up, and buyers are more selective. No surprises there. Higher borrowing costs, global uncertainty, and subdued growth forecasts have all tightened the criteria.

 

But this tightening has created a valuable – and under-discussed – dynamic: In a cautious market, well-prepared businesses command a proportionately greater premium.

 

Buyers are drowning in risk, so they reward clarity, consistency, and resilience at levels we haven’t seen since before the pandemic. The Budget hasn’t changed that. If anything, it has amplified it.

 

2. Tax changes sound small – but their impact on the exit strategy is large

The Chancellor avoided nuclear-level changes to Business Asset Disposal Relief, APR, and BPR. So far, anyway. But the direction of travel is obvious: closer scrutiny, narrower eligibility, and fewer loopholes.

 

This matters because:

 

●        More deals will require earlier and more sophisticated tax planning.

●        More owners will be caught out by rushed pre-deal restructures.

●        More buyers will insist on tighter due diligence to avoid post-completion tax exposure.

 

If you’re planning an exit in 2026, you now need tax planning to start 12-24 months earlier than you would have five years ago. That alone should focus the mind.

 

3. Valuations in 2026 will be driven by operational excellence, not political theatre

Let’s be blunt. Too many owners use Budgets as excuses.

 

“Corporation tax is up.”
“Wage costs are rising.”
“Energy support is winding down.”
“Growth incentives aren’t enough.”

 

All true. All irrelevant to buyers. Every private equity partner, every corporate development director, every adviser on the FT’s pages says the same thing: Buyers pay for predictable future performance – not past political moaning.

 

If your recurring revenue is weak, your margins inconsistent, or your senior team underpowered, a different Chancellor wouldn’t fix it. But operational discipline will.

 

4. Risk is the new valuation multiplier

The Budget added friction for SMEs – more compliance, higher wage floors, and no meaningful reduction in employer burdens. That means one thing: Buyers will price risk more aggressively.

 

Specifically, they will over-scrutinise:

 

●        Customer concentration

●        Overreliance on the founder

●        Cash conversion

●        Pipeline predictability

●        Management depth

●        Documentation and process maturity

 

If the business falls short, buyers will either reduce the offer, stretch the earn-out, or walk away.

 

This is why The Exit Roadmap puts such heavy emphasis on The Exit Triangle – value, timeframe, and the owner’s future role. If you don’t shape this triangle intentionally, buyers will shape it for you.

 

5. The biggest mistake owners will make in 2026

They will “wait for stability.” Let me save you the pain: There won’t be any.

 

2026 will be defined by continued geopolitical instability, tight labour markets, stubborn inflation, and ongoing policy volatility. You don’t create a great exit by waiting for calm waters. You create it by building a boat that can handle waves.

 

6. Why 2026 could actually be a golden year to sell

Here’s the paradox. Despite everything above, 2026 could be one of the most lucrative years for well-prepared businesses.

 

Here’s why: 

• Trade buyers still have cash and need growth through acquisition.
• PE funds still have dry powder they must deploy.
• Many sectors (tech, professional services, manufacturing, healthcare) are consolidating fast.
• Baby-boomer business owners are hitting retirement in record numbers – creating buyer demand for well-run assets. 

This is why Winners will clean up.

 

7. The post-Budget reality: Buyers want proof, not promises

BBC reporting on SME failures in 2024-2025 highlighted one common theme: business fragility.

 

Buyers know this. Which means: 

• Budgets matter less than the stability of your EBITDA.
• Growth forecasts matter less than your accuracy of forecasting.
• Strategy decks matter less than the discipline of execution. 

Or in simple terms: If it’s not documented, systemised, evidenced, and repeatable – it’s not valuable.

 

8. The “10 Essential Actions” every owner must take now for a 2026 exit

If you want a stronger valuation in 2026 – despite the Budget – do these now: 

1. Normalise your accounts so buyers understand true profitability.
2. Strengthen second-tier leadership to reduce founder dependence.
3. Lock down recurring revenue or long-term contracts.
4. Improve cash conversion to demonstrate operational discipline.
5. Reduce customer concentration, no more than 15-20% per client.
6. Tighten pricing strategy to protect margins from rising costs.
7. Create a reliable forecasting engine buyers can trust.
8. Document your processes so the business runs without you.
9. Identify and fix due diligence landmines now, not during the deal.
10. Start tax planning immediately – before any rule tightening bites. 

Execute these, and the Budget becomes background noise.

 

9. Winners will dominate in 2026 – because they act now

Every owner wants a high multiple. Every owner wants the clean, competitive process buyers love. Every owner wants financial freedom. But only the Winners will get it.

 

Because the Whingers will talk. The Waiters will hope. And the Winners will prepare.

 

2026 won’t reward the biggest companies. It won’t reward the oldest companies. It won’t reward the loudest companies. It will reward the most exit-ready companies.

 

10. Final thought: The Budget shapes the landscape – but you shape your exit

If the Autumn Budget has taught us anything, it’s this: Government policy is unpredictable.
Markets are volatile. Deal cycles are lengthening. Buyers are getting tougher. But all of that is outside your control.

 

What you can control are the fundamentals that drive valuation, reduce buyer risk, and create competitive tension. Focus on those, and 2026 could be your best year yet. Because at the end of the day, it’s not the Budget that determines your exit. It’s your readiness. 

 

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By Chris Spratling is a business exit strategist, founder and MD of Chalkhill Blue and author of Amazon #1 Bestseller The Exit Roadmap

 

Main image courtesy of iStockPhoto.com and stocknshares