Resilience and opportunity: the path ahead for global trade

While much attention has been given to US tariffs, policy uncertainty and geopolitical friction, the underlying fundamentals of trade do remain strong. Global trade has been forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1 per cent from 2024 to 2029, outpacing recent years and even matching global GDP growth.

 

Supply chain diversification is continuing as companies prioritise resilience. Companies are diversifying their sourcing strategies by tapping into emerging markets and investing in new trade corridors, with third-party logistics providers’ global networks increasingly supporting this shift. With businesses adapting their strategies accordingly, we remain positive on the overall prospects for global trade and its resilience. We are seeing growth in many markets around the world, such as the Middle East, and also in sector verticals such as e-commerce, life sciences and healthcare, and new energy.

 

Navigating geopolitical complexity 

 

An important thing to understand is that the world is not splitting into disconnected geopolitical blocs. While trade patterns have adjusted in response to geopolitical developments, such as reduced direct US and China trade, there is a growing trend of countries operating with traditional alliances. Nations such as the United Arab Emirates, India, Vietnam and Brazil are deepening trade ties with partners across the globe, demonstrating the multipolar and multicultural nature of the modern global economy.

 

This also highlights the existence and strength of logistics agility, demonstrating how businesses can pivot quickly, reroute flows and provide consistent service amid shifting conditions.

 

The rise of digital trade 

 

The growth of cross-border e-commerce, now worth close to $3 trillion, is accelerating trade at an unprecedented rate. With an estimated 15 to 25 per cent annual growth rate, e-commerce is reshaping how businesses of all sizes access international markets. This is especially promising for small and medium enterprises, who can now compete globally through digital platforms.

 

The continued growth is not just reliant on emerging markets. Established markets in the European Union are showing an increase in consumers who are now purchasing online, with 27 per cent now buying from retailers based outside the other EU countries. Businesses that effectively engage these shoppers by offering features such as preferred payment methods, local translation, returns options and flexible delivery solutions are more likely to succeed in this competitive market.

 

Outlook and seizing opportunities

 

Despite growing talk of deglobalisation, it’s clear to us that there is a more nuanced reality: globalisation isn’t reversing, it’s evolving. Trade is becoming more complex, increasingly digital and spread across a broader set of geographies. The challenge now is not whether trade will continue, but how quickly companies can adapt to the current global environment and trading conditions.

 

Businesses must look at how they engage with the global economy and strive for more informed decision-making, stronger partnerships and more resilient, future-ready strategies.

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