Navigating the new global trade landscape

In an era defined by heightened geopolitical friction and a complex shift in trade policies, deglobalisation has become a frequent headline. Despite some perceptions that trade is retracting, the data tells a different story. The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 reveals that global connectivity has held firm at a record level, with the world’s level of globalisation reaching 25 per cent in 2025, matching the historic high set in 2022.

 

For UK businesses navigating this landscape, while the politics of trade are volatile, the actual flow of goods, capital and information remains remarkably resilient.

 

Europe as a global gateway

 

Europe continues to be the world’s most globally connected region, a position maintained by a balance of deep intra-regional integration and an expansive global reach. The UK plays a central role in this ecosystem. Ranked ninth globally for connectedness, it leads the world in flow breadth. This indicates the UK’s international ties are among the most diversified globally, providing a robust foundation for economic stability even when specific corridors face pressure.

 

British businesses are not overly reliant on a single partner but are instead woven into the global fabric of trade. Maintaining this diversity of connection will be essential for navigating the uncertainties of the coming years.

 

Dispelling the myth of regionalisation

 

There has been much discussion regarding a shift toward regionalisation – the idea that trade is contracting into local clusters to avoid global risks. Interestingly, the report finds no evidence to support this as a dominant trend. In fact, traded goods travelled an average of 5,010 kilometres in 2025, the longest distance on record.

 

This indicates that while companies are certainly prioritising resilience, they are not necessarily doing so by retreating to their doorsteps. Instead, they are seeking growth and stability in distant markets. For the UK, this reinforces the importance of maintaining efficient, high-speed logistics links to emerging hubs in Asia and the Middle East, which continue to act as vital bridges in the global network.

 

The impact of technology and policy

 

The past year has demonstrated how specific catalysts can sustain trade volumes even during periods of policy uncertainty. The surge in AI-related infrastructure was a primary driver, with AI-related products accounting for 42 per cent of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025.

 

Furthermore, trade patterns are proving more adaptable than many anticipated. While US - China trade ties have weakened, falling to 2.0 per cent of world trade in early 2025, this has not led to a broader fragmentation into rival blocs. Only 4 to 6 per cent of global flows have shifted away from geopolitical rivals over the last decade. Rather than a hard split, we are seeing the rise of neutral connectors in nations like India and Vietnam that allow global trade to remain fluid and continuous.

 

Outlook for UK enterprise

 

The outlook for global trade remains positive, with goods trade projected to expand by 2.6 per cent annually through 2029. This growth is consistent with the trends of the past decade, suggesting that while the rules of the road are changing, the road itself remains open.

 

For UK leaders, the priority must be agility. The challenge is not about predicting whether globalisation will continue, but about identifying where and how the opportunities are evolving. This requires a commitment to diversification by leveraging the UK’s existing breadth to explore new corridors. Ultimately, success depends on an informed resilience – recognising that global flows are often more stable than the political rhetoric surrounding them.

 

Globalisation is not reversing, it is maturing. By focusing on the data rather than the noise, British businesses can continue to find significant opportunities in a world that remains deeply, and increasingly, connected. 

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To read more about how global trade is evolving in the face of new challenges, click here

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