Managing supply chain risk in 2026: when disruption is the norm
Sponsored by Crisis24As risks multiply and spread faster than ever, supply chain resilience in 2026 demands real-time intelligence and built-in flexibility
The rulebook for managing global supply chain risk is being rewritten in real time. Trade relationships are shifting, technology is creating new opportunities and new vulnerabilities, and regional hotspots are threatening critical logistics corridors. For global organisations in 2026, the ability to pivot will be just as important as the ability to plan, as disruptions now spread fast and with greater reach.
Technology and the velocity of risk
Speed has become the defining characteristic of modern supply chain risk. Technology allows a localised incident to ripple through global networks, affecting markets, shipping logistics and company reputations across continents. A cyber-attack, a piece of viral misinformation or an infrastructure failure rarely stays contained. Social platforms and AI-powered systems accelerate the spread, potentially turning a regional power outage into a worldwide IT disruption or a false story into protests that shut down transportation routes.
Real-time visibility is essential as threats spread faster across interconnected networks. Risk management platforms such as Crisis24 Horizon centralise global threat intelligence and incident monitoring, giving organisations a shared, real-time view of emerging disruptions and the ability to co-ordinate responses as events unfold. These tools help accelerate decision-making and reduce the operational impact of fast-moving events by giving security and supply chain leaders a unified view of disruptions.
Risks are also converging in new ways that catch organisations unprepared. Cyber-attacks are growing in scale and sophistication, amplified by automation, with impacts that now span data integrity, financial systems and physical operations. Many organisations still lack visibility of the cyber-resilience of their vendors and suppliers, and attackers exploit these gaps regularly. Organisations that treat cyber-security, physical security and communications as separate functions will struggle when these risks converge.
US-China competition and trade uncertainty
Beyond these immediate threats, a longer-term technology competition is unfolding between the US and China. Both nations are racing to build the energy infrastructure that AI requires. Advanced AI systems consume enormous amounts of electricity around the clock, and existing grids weren’t designed for that kind of demand. The nation that takes the lead will gain a real edge in AI capability, with downstream effects on manufacturing capacity and global supply chains.
The US-China rivalry extends to trade, where uncertainty has become the norm. Tariffs are imposed, suspended and reimposed with little warning, making it difficult to plan procurement, manufacturing and distribution. Uncertainty over duties on Chinese goods and fees on Chinese-built vessels entering US ports is already pushing cargo towards alternative routes and driving up shipping costs. Secondary ports and transshipment hubs are seeing more traffic, which lengthens delivery times and adds complexity. Over time, this congestion may spur new infrastructure investment; in the near term, however, it creates bottlenecks.
Some companies try to work around tariffs through ship-to-ship transfers, flag changes or routing goods through third countries to obscure their origins. These tactics carry real risks, including safety hazards, legal exposure, reputational damage and the possibility of triggering additional sanctions. Fully separating American and Chinese supply chains remains impractical given China’s cost advantages and manufacturing scale. But companies in vulnerable industries, such as batteries, electric vehicles, aerospace, defence, semiconductors and AI should be building a more diversified footprint.
Threats to key trade corridors
Trade policy isn’t the only threat to global shipping. Maritime Asia remains the world’s most important logistics corridor, and tensions there show no signs of easing. Defence spending across the region has climbed steadily over the past decade, fuelled by US policy uncertainty, regional rivalries and military competition. A full-scale conflict is unlikely, but security incidents or diplomatic flare-ups could trigger limited escalations, including increased naval activity or extended military buildups. Even brief standoffs can shut down airspace or sea lanes, raise insurance costs and create cargo backlogs. And during these periods, nationalist sentiment can create reputational problems for foreign companies.
The Middle East presents its own challenges. Ceasefires remain fragile and regional rivalries continue to weigh on logistics and operational planning. Red Sea trade, approaching a trillion dollars annually, faces persistent uncertainty that affects routing decisions and transit costs for goods moving between Asia and Europe.
Risks in emerging supply chain regions
Beyond these established trade corridors, new pressures are building in regions critical to future supply chains. Major economies are competing for Africa’s cobalt, lithium, strategic ports and military access, with competition set to intensify through 2026. Fiscal stress, mounting debt and uneven foreign investment are straining institutions across the continent, leading to civil unrest and disputes over resources.
When disruption becomes the baseline
Across every region and every risk category, the lesson is clear: a stable supply chain environment is no longer the reality. Organisations best positioned to navigate this instability embed real-time intelligence into decisions, pre-authorise responses and maintain alternative supply options. That means securing backup port contracts and inland routes now, establishing protocols to switch shipping lines quickly, positioning inventory close to end markets and budgeting for higher costs when Plan A falls through. Supply chain disruptions are now the rule, not the exception, and risk mitigation strategies must be built into every plan.
For a deeper look at the trends and regional dynamics shaping risk this year, explore Crisis24’s Global Risk Forecast 2026: Global Risk Forecast | Crisis24
By Nick Hill, Senior Director, Global Intelligence and Operations, Crisis24
Business Reporter Team
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